How Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A initial meeting by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House empty-handed

The frequently changing meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his decision to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact new sanctions on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.

Trump loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in August yielded no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska just as it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.

"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.

During his election campaign last year, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Steven Nguyen
Steven Nguyen

Agile coach and software developer with over a decade of experience in transforming teams and driving digital excellence.